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Who will win the world cup? Assessment before quarterfinals


There is a substantial gap between what data websites and betting websites believe. Well, at least they have the order right!!

Here is what the betting websites believe:

Country Probability of winning
Brazil 24.1%
Argentina 18.0%
Netherlands 16.4%
Germany 15.0%
France 11.3%
Belgium 6.9%
Colombia 6.9%
Costa Rica 1.3%

Here is what the data websites believe:

Probability of winning before quarterfinals begin

 

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