Good question. The numbers didn’t seem right to me, so I looked at another betting website http://sports.ladbrokes.com/en-gb/Chess-c210000170 which has 2/5 for Magnus and 7/4 for Anand. This means that you receive a total of 7 dollars on every 5 that you bet on Magnus (profit =2 ). Basically for you to at least break even if you bet on Carlsen, his probability of winning should be 5/7 = 71.4% or more. Similarly you will make money if you bet on Anand if his probability of winning should be 4/11 = 37% or more. Given our chances of approximately 85-15, I think it would make sense to bet on Carlsen given these odds.

With your numbers I guess (0.25:1) for Carlsen , and (2.5:1) for Anand, which means betting on Carlsen will make sense if his probability of winning is 0.8 or more, and winning on Anand will make sense if his winning probability is 1/3.5 = 0.286 or more. I think with this bookie, it does not make sense to bet, he has his numbers.

]]>Comments on a quick draw – Anand was better prepared with this opening, Carlsen could not get much out of it because he misplayed move 13. It is good that Anand handled Magnus’s first white game, and I hope that he is better prepared for other games too. However, as far as predictions is concerned, I don’t think it changes the scenario much for the next 11 games. I would still give Carlsen roughly 80% chance to win outright, 10% Anand to win outright, and 10% chance of a tie-break. ]]>

good to see you!! Really excited for the world championship! ðŸ™‚ ]]>